Issue #3 | October 12, 2025
🥄 FIRST BITE
The appetizer before we dive in
Welcome back, Crunchers. This week was a masterclass in what happens when the music stops. PRIME’s cratering, Flow Water’s drowning, and somehow DUDE Wipes is printing money. Plus, Target’s testing THC and everyone’s flooding into retail like it’s 2019 again.
Let me explain why this all makes perfect sense.
🍊 THE MAIN COURSE
This week’s biggest CPG moves
PRIME’s 77% Collapse
Logan Paul’s energy drink empire just posted the most spectacular crash in modern CPG history. From $1.3B in 2023 to $300M in 2025. That’s not a correction - that’s a cliff dive.
The Crunch: Turns out teenage boys don’t stay teenage boys forever. And when your entire brand is built on YouTube views instead of, you know, taste... gravity wins. Every. Single. Time.
Flow Water Flows Into Receivership
The Canadian alkaline water darling that was supposed to revolutionize hydration just got scooped up by Boston’s Rucker Investments after defaulting on loans. Remember when alkaline water was going to save us all?
The Crunch: Premium water only works if it’s actually premium. Flow learned what Fiji knew 20 years ago - you need more than pH levels and a nice bottle.
Uncle Nearest’s $108M Hangover
The premium whiskey brand is in receivership, selling off unlaunched Cognac ventures and vineyards. They expanded too fast, borrowed too much, and now they’re having a yard sale.
The Crunch: Spirits is a patient person’s game. You can’t TikTok your way to Jack Daniel’s status.
💰 REAL MONEY VS. FAKE MONEY
Who’s actually building businesses
The Winners:
DUDE Wipes: $130M at Walmart (up from $75K in 8 years)
Lifeway Foods: Q3 sales up 21-24%
BeatBox: On pace for $250M (they make party drinks, not content)
Leisure Hydration: First $1M month with 10% net profit
Mother Root: Won £90K on Dragons’ Den (5% stake)
The Losers:
PRIME: Down 77% (creator economy reality check)
Flow Water: Receivership (alkaline couldn’t save them)
Uncle Nearest: Defaulted on $108M (grew too fast, crashed faster)
🛒 DISTRIBUTION DOMINATION
The great retail land grab
This week saw more distribution wins than a Costco roadshow:
Target’s Shopping Spree:
Ketone-IQ: Added 2,000 doors (biohacking goes mainstream)
Huel: Nationwide launch (meal replacement everywhere)
Lentiful: 200+ stores (beans are having a moment)
Target Tests THC: Minnesota stores (the real innovation)
Walmart Wins:
Caliwater: 3,500 stores (cactus water’s big bet)
Ritual: Select stores (vitamins for millennials)
Regional Power Moves:
Actual Veggies: 1,350 Publix stores (plant burgers push south)
Brightland: Whole Foods gets pretty olive oil
Mezcla: Multi-packs at Publix & Target
Sobo: Two flavors at H-E-B
Mission: Expanded at Albertsons
Liquid Death x Big Geyser: NYC distribution partnership (water brand needs... water distribution)
The Crunch: Everyone’s racing to retail like digital doesn’t exist. The shelves are getting crowded, and someone’s going to get pushed off.
🎙️ FROM THE PODCAST
This week on Unpackaged Goods
[Listen to Episode 4 →]
Went solo this week to break down the week’s chaos and dive deep into Whole Foods’ 2026 trend predictions. Spoiler: They think we’re all going to start cooking with beef fat.
Whole Foods 2026 Predictions (My Take):
Tallow Takeover - “Beef fat is just coconut oil for carnivores”
Fiber Finally Gets Respect - “Protein’s exhausted, fiber’s turn”
Year of the Female Farmer - “About time”
Kitchen Couture - “Your olive oil needs a museum”
Freezer Fine Dining - “Frozen food goes Michelin”
Vinegar Everything - “Pickle juice is wellness now?”
Mindful Sweets - “Dates in everything”
Instant Reimagined - “Ramen for rich people”
My Super Early 2027 Predictions:
The Great Creator Crash - Celebrity CPG bubble finally pops
Ozempic Eats Everything - Every food becomes GLP-1 “optimized”
AI-Personalized CPG - Your algorithm picks your snacks
The Return of Normal - Brands that just work win big
Climate Packaging Wars - Zero waste or zero sales
D2C’s Revenge - Direct-to-consumer makes a comeback
🌍 GLOBAL EXPANSION PLAYS
CPG goes worldwide
PepsiCo Takes Poppi to the UK The functional soda that might sell for $2B is crossing the pond. PepsiCo’s distribution muscle meets British digestive sensibilities.
All Things Butter Raises £2M Speaking of the UK, this premium butter brand just secured funding. Because if there’s one thing Britain loves more than tea, it’s proper butter.
Red Bull’s Carolina Compound Building a 2.36M sq ft facility in North Carolina. That’s not expansion - that’s colonization. Operational by 2028.
🆕 BRAND LAUNCHES & PIVOTS
What’s new on shelves
The Expansion Brigade:
Ballerina Farm: Launched hydration line ($39 for farmers)
Smash Kitchen: Glen Powell’s brand adds cooking oils
Evergreen: Second product line hits Whole Foods
Joanna Gaines: Magnolia frozen baked goods at Target
Sauce Revival: BFY condiments with chickpea power
Carbone: Unveiled new color-coded pasta sauce labels
📊 THE DATA DIGEST
Numbers that actually matter
$36B: Mars/Kellanova merger approved
$11M: Alec’s Ice Cream A2 dairy raise
$1M: Leisure Hydration’s record month
2,000: Target doors added by Ketone-IQ
3,500: Walmart stores for Caliwater
1,350: Publix stores for Actual Veggies
🔥 THE HOT TAKE
My unfiltered opinion on this week’s madness
Look at this week’s distribution news. Thousands of new doors. Everyone’s celebrating retail expansion like it’s 1999.
You know what happens when everyone rushes into retail at once? The same thing that happened to PRIME. Too much, too fast, no differentiation.
Ketone-IQ at 2,000 Target stores. Caliwater at 3,500 Walmarts. Actual Veggies at 1,350 Publix locations. These aren’t victories - they’re bets. Big, expensive bets that consumers will find you among the 47 other new brands that launched this week.
The brands winning long-term aren’t the ones with the most doors. They’re the ones with repeat customers. DUDE Wipes gets it. Leisure Hydration gets it.
Everyone else is playing distribution bingo.
📺 COMING MONDAY
The Consumer Crunch: Week in Review
Breaking down why Target testing THC is actually genius, plus what 11,000 new retail doors means for the brands that were already there.
🥫 ONE MORE THING...
Before you close this tab
Liquid Death partnered with Big Geyser for NYC distribution. A water brand needed help distributing... water. In New York. Where there are literally millions of people.
If that doesn’t sum up the current state of CPG, nothing does.
Until next Sunday, Jonathan Deeter Your CPG-Obsessed Friend
P.S.
Death Wish Coffee is suing Liquid Death over coffee. The simulation is definitely broken.
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