Issue #29 | May 18, 2026
🥄 FIRST BITE
The appetizer before we dive in
Welcome back. J.M. Smucker hired Goldman Sachs for a strategic portfolio review. Translation: Hostess Snacks — the $5.6 billion acquisition from three years ago — is probably getting carved out. Sweet baked snack sales are collapsing, while coffee, frozen handhelds, and pet products are performing. Elliott Investment Management is pushing. The math makes itself.
Meanwhile, Monster posted $2.35 billion in Q1, up 27%. Once Upon a Farm surged 43% to $73M. Lifeway crushed Q1 with $63M, up 37%. Good Boy Vodka jumped from #31 to #10 in RTD cocktails after 300% growth. Sazerac took another equity stake — this time SIPMARGS — adding exclusive U.S. distribution alongside the 818 deal. CAVU backed 4AM skincare for $4M — its third deal in three weeks. And Purely Elizabeth is now on track to surpass $300M in sales this year.
The theme this week is reckoning. Smucker is reckoning with a $5.6B acquisition that isn’t working. Monster is answering Celsius’s record quarter with its own. And the emerging brands posting 37%, 43%, 300% growth aren’t slowing down — they’re accelerating. Let’s dig in.
🍊 THE MAIN COURSE
This week’s biggest CPG moves
Smucker Hires Goldman Sachs — The Hostess Reckoning
J.M. Smucker tapped Goldman Sachs for a strategic portfolio review. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management is involved. With coffee, frozen handhelds (Uncrustables), and pet performing well while sweet baked snack sales collapse, carving out Hostess Snacks is the likely outcome. Smucker acquired Hostess for $5.6 billion just three years ago.
Smucker paid $5.6B betting that Twinkies, Ding Dongs, and Ho Hos had staying power. Three years later, sweet baked snacks are in structural decline while Jif, Uncrustables, Folgers, and Meow Mix hold or grow. The consumer moved on. Protein bars, functional treats, and better-for-you snacking ate the category Hostess defined for decades.
Elliott doesn’t push for strategic reviews to maintain the status quo. They push for asset sales and portfolio simplification. A Hostess carve-out at a significant discount to $5.6B would be one of the most high-profile write-downs in recent CPG history.
The irony: Jams — launched at Target six months ago — continues outselling Uncrustables in same-item sales. Smucker’s best frozen handheld is getting beaten by an insurgent while its worst acquisition heads for the exit. The portfolio tells two completely different stories about where CPG is heading.
Monster Posts $2.35B in Q1 — Up 27%
Monster Beverage delivered a massive Q1 with net sales surging 27% to $2.35 billion. Last week, Celsius reported $783M with 20.9% market share. This week, Monster answers with $2.35B.
The energy drink category is exploding at every level. The incumbent and the insurgent both posted their best quarters ever in the same reporting period. Monster is still the largest pure-play energy company in the world. Celsius is the fastest-growing platform. Both winning simultaneously means the consumer isn’t choosing between them — they’re buying both. The pie is getting bigger, not getting redistributed.
Once Upon a Farm Q1: $73M, Up 43%
Once Upon a Farm (NYSE: OFRM) posted Q1 net sales of $73 million, up 43% year-over-year. Net loss narrowed to $15.8M from $19.5M. The company’s network of 3,700 branded coolers is delivering productivity gains.
The IPO stumble (30% growth, 20% stock drop) feels like ancient history now. 43% growth with a narrowing loss should help rebuild investor confidence. The branded cooler strategy is the moat — 3,700 coolers across the U.S. create real estate in the refrigerated aisle that competitors can’t easily replicate. When you own the touchpoint, you control the consumer relationship.
Lifeway Q1: $63M, Up 37% — Best Quarter Ever
Lifeway Foods posted Q1 net sales of $63 million, up 36.7%. Gross margin improved 360 basis points. Net income jumped 32% to $4.7M. Best quarter in company history.
Gut health isn’t a wellness aisle side quest anymore. It’s mainstream grocery behavior. Lifeway is the proof. Growing 37% with expanding margins and rising net income is the triple threat that public markets reward. The kefir company that nobody talks about is growing faster than most venture-backed startups.
💰 THE FUNDING FRENZY
Big checks being written
Sazerac Takes Equity in SIPMARGS + Exclusive Distribution
Sazerac acquired a minority stake in canned margarita brand SIPMARGS and signed an exclusive U.S. distribution deal. SIPMARGS relaunched in March 2025 with $3M from Palm Tree Crew, Alix Earle, Michael Rubin, Steve Aoki, and others.
The Sazerac machine keeps adding brands. Two weeks ago: 818 Tequila. Now: SIPMARGS. Buffalo Trace, Fireball, BuzzBallz, 818, and now SIPMARGS are all moving through the same distribution infrastructure. Bourbon, vodka, tequila, canned margaritas — Sazerac owns every drinking occasion through one machine.
CAVU Backs 4AM — $4M Seed
Viral skincare brand 4AM closed $4M led by CAVU with B4 Capital, Type Capital, Dr. Muneeb Shah, and others. Founded by Jade Beguelin and Sabrina Sade. Clean Sheets at 1,700+ Target doors.
CAVU’s third deal in three weeks: Crazy Mountain ($15M), Gymkhana ($8.5M), 4AM ($4M). The firm behind Health-Ade, Poppi ($2B exit), Once Upon a Farm, OSEA, and Thrive Market — founded by the operators behind Vitaminwater and Deep Eddy Vodka — is deploying at an unprecedented pace. 4AM already has 1,700 Target doors. CAVU sees a path to significant scale.
Crown Affair — Series C Led by Stride
Prestige haircare brand Crown Affair closed a Series C round from Stride Consumer Partners. Founded in 2020 by Dianna Cohen. Recently unlocked all-door Sephora distribution. Stride’s portfolio includes Chomps ($900M), Tatcha (sold to Shiseido), Yasso, Odele, and Drybar (sold to WellBiz).
When the investor behind some of the most successful consumer exits of the decade leads your Series C with all-door Sephora distribution already secured, the exit path is being mapped. Stride also backs Odele in masstige haircare — now they own positions at both ends of the haircare market.
Rogue — $2.5M Pre-Seed from Science Inc
High-protein chip brand Rogue secured $2.5M in funding, led by Science Inc (Dollar Shave Club, Liquid Death), with Simple Food Ventures, Uncommon VC, and strategics. Founded by Tommy Riggs. 2,800 Walmart doors in July.
The formal raise for the brand we’ve been tracking. Science Inc's putting institutional capital behind Rogue, alongside Walmart's commitment, creates a launch profile that most brands spend years building. Seed-oil-free, high-protein chips at national Walmart with the team that built Dollar Shave Club and Liquid Death. The playbook is baked in.
Oishii — $150M Series C First Close
Vertical farming company Oishii announced the first close of its $150M Series C from SPARX Asset Management, Nomura Real Estate, MISUMI Group, and others. Total raised: $370M since 2016.
$370M to grow strawberries indoors. The bet is that vertical farming produces consistently superior fruit year-round, regardless of climate or supply chain disruption. $150M in Series C funding from Japanese institutional investors signals that unit economics are improving. Whether vertical farming reaches cost parity with traditional agriculture remains the existential question.
S2G Investments — $1B Solutions Fund I
S2G secured $1 billion for Solutions Fund I, targeting growth-stage startups in Europe and North America across the food, agriculture, and energy sectors. Previous investments include 80 Acres Farms, Apeel Sciences, Atomo Coffee, and Bettani Farms.
A billion dollars for food system transformation. S2G’s portfolio reads like a map of the future — indoor farming, food waste reduction, alternative ingredients, and sustainable agriculture. $1B signals institutional conviction that food and ag innovation is investable at scale.
Roxberry — $4M Seed
Kids’ soda brand Roxberry closed $4M to expand nationally. Launched at Kroger, H-E-B, Meijer, and 2,200+ Walmart stores in four months. Co-founded by Andy Sauer, CEO of Garage Beer. U.S. kids’ beverage category expected to reach $30B by 2033.
Four months. Four major retailers. 2,200+ Walmart doors. The distribution velocity for a kids’ brand is remarkable. The $30B kids’ beverage market is getting attacked from every angle simultaneously.
Harken Sweets — Adds Taste Tomorrow and grt sht ventures
Better-for-you candy brand added L.A. Libations’ venture arm and grt sht ventures to the cap table. Costco Northwest is launching next week. 7,500+ doors by year-end. Previous backers: Selva Ventures and Melitas Ventures.
L.A. Libations’ venture arm investing in candy suggests they see the better-for-you innovation playbook extending beyond beverages. Costco adds high-volume club channel to the distribution mix.
Ruka — $4.5M from Henkel Ventures
London-based alternative hair extensions brand Ruka closed $4.5M led by Henkel Ventures and Freedom Trail Capital. Founded by Tendai Moyo and Ugo Agbai. Lab-grown fiber extensions plus styling products, fragrances, and tools.
Henkel Ventures leading is the strategic signal. Henkel acquired Olaplex ($1.4B) and Not Your Mother’s ($220M revenue). Their venture arm investing in Ruka means the brand is on the acquisition watchlist. Lab-grown fibers for extensions are novel and defensible technology.
Cal-Maine Acquires Van’s Foods
Cal-Maine Foods, the largest U.S. egg producer, acquired Van’s Foods from Sara Lee Frozen Bakery. Van’s is the category leader in gluten-free waffles. The acquisition increases Cal-Maine’s prepared foods revenue by 10%.
The largest egg company is buying the leading gluten-free waffle brand. Cal-Maine is diversifying beyond eggs into adjacent breakfast categories — reducing exposure to the egg price volatility that’s been headline news for two years. Smart portfolio construction for a company that knows it can’t rely on a single commodity.
Sunrise Beverages Acquires Days
London-based beverage collective Sunrise Beverages acquired Days, an Edinburgh-based non-alc beer brand. Founded in 2021, Days is available at Tesco, Waitrose, Ocado, and select pubs.
The non-alcoholic beer consolidation is going global. BERO is scaling in the U.S. Athletic Brewing dominates domestically. Crazy Mountain just raised $15M from CAVU. Now Sunrise is rolling up non-alc beer brands in the UK. The category is mature enough in the UK to support M&A activity — a signal that non-alc beer has moved from trend to permanent category.
🆕 PRODUCT LAUNCHES & INNOVATION
This week’s innovation circus
Graza Doubles Down on Chips at Target
Graza revamped its potato chip line — refreshed packaging, new flavors: Classic Sea Salt, Zesty Caesar, Sea Salt & Vinegar, Hot ‘N Sweet. Cooked in 100% extra virgin olive oil. Available online and at Target. Leveraging olive oil brand equity into higher-velocity snacking is a smart portfolio strategy. The original chip launch in 2024 was a test. This revamp says the data worked.
Ritual Zero Proof Moves Into RTDs
Diageo-owned Ritual Zero Proof launched RTDs — Zero Proof Margarita, G&T, and Spritz at $13.99 per 4-pack. Diageo's 2024 acquisition of Ritual and subsequent expansion into RTDs follow the Casamigos RTD playbook. Non-alc cocktails gaining institutional distribution through Diageo are changing the competitive landscape.
Purely Elizabeth Protein Granola at Target
Purely Elizabeth launched Protein Ancient Grain Granola — 10g protein, 6-8g fiber per serving. Available at Target. The brand is now on track to surpass $300M in sales this year. Three weeks after we covered the potential $600M exit, the brand continues to innovate and expand. Protein positioning atop ancient-grain credibility is a natural extension.
Sommer Ray Launches Tempted
Influencer Sommer Ray launched Tempted — a 7% ABV spiked Shirley Temple with 4g of sugar. Available on Gopuff, ShopRite, and independent liquor stores at $12.99 per 4-pack. Sazerac acquired Dirty Shirley in March. Now Tempted enters the same space. The Dirty Shirley subcategory is becoming its own competitive landscape within RTD.
Lemme x Starface — Target May 17th
Kourtney Kardashian Barker’s Lemme and Starface dropped a three-product collab: Healthy Skin Gummies, Hydro-Star Pimple Patches, and Lemonade Star Balm. Online and in-store at Target. More than a year in the making. Celebrity wellness wants shelf space, not just comments.
More Launches Worth Watching
Better Sour launched Gummy Shells with real cane sugar — Watermelon Yuzu, Mango, Lychee. Excellent branding continues.
HIPPEAS Protein Crunch — 8g pea protein, 55% less fat. Cheddar Vibrations and Pizza Party flavors.
Hero Group launched Goodies in the U.S. — better-for-you kids’ snacks at Walmart, Kroger, and Amazon. Hero acquired Deliciously Ella and The Gut Stuff in the UK. Now entering the U.S. kids’ market directly.
Bloom expanded with mini cans (100mg caffeine, 5 calories at Walmart and Target and a limited-edition Summer Splash at Kroger, Sam’s Club, and 7-Eleven. Two format innovations in one week.
Boston Beer launched LYTT Electric Coolers — glow-in-the-dark 15% ABV cocktails in light bulb-shaped vessels. We’ve officially reached peak novelty packaging.
OLIPOP x Space Camp soda-inspired lip balm at Target. Cream Soda, Vintage Cola, Shirley Temple, Crisp Apple. Brand extension into beauty and lifestyle.
Olivia Jade launched o.piccola beauty with The Bronze & Glow Balm. No incubator. No outside funding. Entirely self-built. The counter-narrative to the Maesa and Imaginary Ventures incubator model.
SMACKIN’ x Alex Rodriguez — Honey BBQ sunflower seeds collab.
Siete launched Maíz Organic Yellow Corn and Sourdough Style Tortillas at Whole Foods, Target, and Sprouts.
Easy Does It dropped its second brew—Mexican-Style Lager. The skater-founded non-alc beer keeps building.
Mission Craft Cocktails Tamarind Margarita.
Kettle & Fire x Force of Nature Bison Bone Broth collab coming.
Jon & Vinny’s x Le Monde Gourmand — tomato-inspired perfume and candle collection.
Whole Foods Daily Shop is expanding its smaller format to Boston, Chicago, and Philadelphia.
Clase Azul unveiled La Hacienda, a 50-acre distillery and visitor center in Jalisco. Restaurant, ceramics workshop, and full experience.
📊 THE DATA DIGEST
Numbers that matter
Monster Q1: $2.35B, Up 27%
Monster answers Celsius’s $783M with $2.35B. Both posted record quarters in the same period. The energy drink category is exploding — incumbent and insurgent winning simultaneously. The pie is growing.
Once Upon a Farm Q1: $73M, Up 43%
The post-IPO acceleration is real. 3,700 branded coolers are driving productivity. Net loss narrowing. 43% growth silences the skeptics who punished the stock after the listing.
Lifeway Q1: $63M, Up 37%
Best quarter ever. Margins expanding. Net income up 32%. Gut health is going mainstream. The kefir company nobody talks about is outgrowing most venture-backed brands.
Good Boy Vodka: #10 RTD, Up 300%
Jumped from #31 to #10 in RTD cocktails after 300% year-over-year growth. Available in 44 states. Partnering with John Daly. In a category where six brands have exited in six months, Good Boy’s velocity makes it an obvious acquisition target.
Purely Elizabeth: On Track for $300M
Three weeks after the $600M exit exploration, the brand confirms $300M trajectory for 2026. The quiet compounder accelerates.
Jams Still Beating Uncrustables
Sustained outperformance at Target. Not a one-week blip. The insurgent keeps winning against the Smucker’s icon — in the same week, Smucker hires Goldman to review the portfolio.
Plant People: #1 Mushroom Supplement at Target
Number one in the category, less than six months after launching. Backed by Manna Tree.
🏪 DISTRIBUTION DOMINATION
Everyone’s everywhere
The AG1 Channel Surprise
AG1 launched storewide at Ulta Beauty. A supplement brand in beauty retail. As Grüns overtakes AG1 in DTC and scales at Kroger under Unilever, AG1 is hunting consumers in unconventional channels. Whether smart or desperate depends on the velocity data over the past 90 days.
David’s Retail March
David launched at Publix across the Southeast. Lawsuit dropped. Costco opened. Now Publix. The brand that spent weeks as a meme is methodically building national grocery coverage while the internet moves on.
Rotten Goes Chainwide
Rotten secured nationwide Kroger distribution. From the Costco Pacific Northwest regional test to Kroger chainwide. When Costco velocity translates into Kroger confidence, the brand proves it works across both club and conventional channels.
Walmart’s Quiet Accumulation
Sanzo at 1,300+ doors. PopSips at 300 stores. Winx Health at 1,200 stores. BRĒZ non-infused line. Buda Juice at 250 stores. Rogue at 2,800 in July. Six brands. Combined 8,000+ incoming doors. Walmart absorbs the entire emerging CPG landscape one thousand doors at a time.
Target’s Format Expansion
Frozen One nationwide. PRETZELIZED at 200+ stores. Leisure Hydration nationwide. Long Weekend nationwide. Mooski Oat Bites in 25 states. Slice Dirty Sodas exclusive. Lemme x Starface launching May 17th. 4AM Clean Sheets at 1,700+ doors. Not just adding brands — letting existing brands expand into new formats within Target’s walls.
The Prestige Play
Crown Affair unlocked all-door Sephora. Rhode at Sephora Europe. Premium beauty brands aren’t fighting for grocery shelf space — they’re building through prestige doors and owned retail.
Regional Wins That Build the Resume
Bawi 4-packs at H-E-B. B.T.R. Nation at Hy-Vee. Jubilee’s at Sprouts. Zahav Hummus at Giant PA. Bunky at Fresh Market East Coast. Mochidoki at Big Y. Godspeed at Erewhon. Lumen at Wegmans. Each regional win adds velocity data that unlocks the next conversation with a larger chain.
👋 PEOPLE MOVES
Andrew Archambault appointed President and COO at Nutrabolt (Bloom, C4 Energy). Previously President of The Hershey Company and Head of U.S. Beverages at KDP. When Hershey’s former president runs your energy platform, you’re building for massive scale.
Eric Perkins hired as CCO at Bawi Agua Fresca from Sysco and Kraft Heinz. Foodservice distribution expertise.
Olivia Jade launched o.piccola beauty independently. No incubator. No outside funding. The self-built creator brand as counter-narrative to the incubator model.
Dr. Dhaval Bhanusali appointed Chief Dermatologist at Therabody. Previously Founding Partner at Rhode and launched Elm Biosciences with Martha Stewart.
🔥 THE HOT TAKE
My unfiltered opinion on this week’s madness
Smucker paid $5.6 billion for Hostess three years ago. This week they hired Goldman Sachs and Elliott is pushing. The consumer moved on. Better-for-you snacking didn’t just create new brands — it killed old categories. Twinkies were declining when Smucker bought them. The $5.6B bet was that nostalgia and distribution could reverse the trend. It couldn’t.
The irony cuts deep. Jams is outselling Uncrustables at Target. Smucker’s own frozen handheld is getting beaten by an insurgent at the same retailer where Hostess is losing shelf space. Goldman is being hired to separate the future from the past.
Meanwhile, every Q1 report that landed this week told the same story: the brands with genuine consumer demand are accelerating, not plateauing. Monster at $2.35B, up 27%. Once Upon a Farm at $73M, up 43%. Lifeway at $63M, up 37%. Good Boy Vodka up 300%. Purely Elizabeth on track for $300M. These aren’t outliers. This is what happens when the product earns repeat purchase and the distribution compounds.
And Sazerac keeps building. 818 two weeks ago. SIPMARGS this week. The distribution machine that moves Buffalo Trace and Fireball keeps adding brands. CAVU keeps deploying — Crazy Mountain, Gymkhana, 4AM in three weeks. Stride backs Crown Affair at Series C with all-door Sephora. The institutional capital flowing into consumer brands right now is targeting velocity and infrastructure simultaneously.
But the Smucker story is the one I want every founder and every investor to sit with. $5.6 billion. Three years. Goldman Sachs hired. Elliott pushing. The consumer changed and the brand didn’t. Nostalgia is not a moat. Distribution is not a moat. Building something the consumer actually wants in 2026 — that’s a moat. Jams has it. Hostess doesn’t.
Build for where the consumer is going. The data is loud enough.
🎙️ COMING TUESDAY
Unpackaged Goods Episode
Breaking down Smucker’s portfolio review and whether Hostess gets carved out at a massive write-down. Monster at $2.35B versus Celsius at $783M — both posting record quarters. Once Upon a Farm up 43% post-IPO. Lifeway’s best quarter ever. Good Boy Vodka from #31 to #10 after 300% growth. Sazerac adding SIPMARGS alongside 818. CAVU’s third deal in three weeks. And why better-for-you snacking didn’t just create new brands — it killed old categories.
🥫 ONE MORE THING...
Before you close this tab
Smucker paid $5.6 billion for Hostess. Three years later, Goldman Sachs is running a portfolio review. In the same week, Jams confirmed it continues outselling Uncrustables at Target six months after launching.
One company paid billions for nostalgia. Another launched six months ago with cleaner ingredients. The consumer chose the new brand. That’s the entire story of CPG in 2026 in two data points.
The reckoning isn’t coming. It’s here.
Until next Sunday, Jonathan Deeter Your CPG-Obsessed Friend
P.S. — Boston Beer launched LYTT Electric Coolers. Glow-in-the-dark, 15% ABV cocktails. In light bulb-shaped bottles. Every beverage brand apparently has a whiteboard session that starts with “what’s the craziest vessel we can put alcohol in?” and ends with someone shouting “LIGHT BULBS.” Meanwhile Sazerac is quietly plugging brands into its distribution machine like a normal company. Some brands innovate on product. Some innovate on packaging. Sazerac innovates on infrastructure. The infrastructure always wins.
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