Issue #1 | January 5, 2026
Welcome to 2026. Proudly seasoned by Trophy Wife - The Official Finishing Salt of The Deeter Digest. New year, same salt, better flavor.
🥄 FIRST BITE
The appetizer before we dive in
Welcome to 2026 and The Deeter Digest’s first issue of the year. This week, DropOut Companies takes on Jimmy Dean with Poppi power, Australia buys California’s olive oil crown for $173.5 million, and PFAS regulations just changed everything you touch, eat, or wear.
Plus: Private label hits 21% market share, First Day celebrates 100 million gummies, and we dive deep into why your next frying pan costs $200. Let’s feast on the future.
🍊 THE MAIN COURSE
This week’s biggest CPG moves
DropOut’s Bronco Gallops Into Target
DropOut Companies launched Bronco, a better-for-you frozen breakfast sandwich, nationwide at Target. With Poppi co-founder Stephen Ellsworth as Operating Partner (fresh off their $2B PepsiCo exit), they’re targeting Jimmy Dean’s billion-dollar throne.
This is what smart second acts look like. Ellsworth knows how to disrupt boring categories – he made soda “healthy.” Now he’s applying that playbook to frozen breakfast. High-protein, no seed oils, Target endcaps on day one. When the Poppi mafia enters frozen food, legacy brands should worry. Tyson’s watching nervously.
Australia Buys California for $173.5M
Cobram Estate is acquiring California Olive Ranch (including Lucini Italia) for $173.5 million. The deal expands Cobram’s California footprint from 1,400 to 3,300 hectares, with U.S. sales comprising 55% of total revenue post-acquisition.
Olive oil consolidation continues. California Olive Ranch pioneered domestic production since 1998, but couldn’t scale profitably alone. Cobram gets instant U.S. dominance plus the Lucini premium brand. When Australians buy California agriculture, globalization hits your kitchen pantry. Expect higher quality, higher prices.
First Day’s Vitamin Victory
First Day rolled out nationwide at Target with dedicated endcaps after selling 100 million gummies in 2025. The family vitamin brand launched in 2019 and just hit the retail jackpot.
From launch to national endcaps in 6 years? That’s execution. While everyone chases adult supplements, First Day owns the family angle. Parents trust them, kids eat them, Target loves the velocity. In a category full of sugar bombs, clean ingredients win. Sometimes the best strategy is solving real problems for real families.
📊 2026 STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
The landscape has shifted
Private Label Owns 2026
Store brands hit 21.2% dollar share, growing at 7.1% CAGR. More importantly: 74% of shoppers now view private label as equal quality to national brands. The “trade-down” became “trade-smart.”
This isn’t recession behavior – it’s permanent consumer evolution. Walmart’s Bettergoods. Target’s Good & Gather. Costco’s Kirkland. They’re not copying nationals anymore; they’re out-innovating them. When store brands launch organic lines faster than legacy CPG, the game has changed forever.
PFAS Bans Are Now Reality
As of January 1, Maine, Connecticut, and Vermont banned PFAS in everything from cookware to cosmetics. California and Minnesota have their own timelines. Suddenly, “forever chemicals” are yesterday’s problem.
The reformulation scramble is real. Brands are replacing fluorinated chemicals with ceramics, bio-estolides, and dendrimers (yes, that’s a real thing). Your non-stick pan now costs $204 because sol-gel ceramic technology isn’t cheap. When states force chemistry changes overnight, consumers pay the innovation tax.
🔬 DEEP DIVE: THE $200 FRYING PAN ECONOMY
Why PFAS-free means price-full
The New Chemistry
Replacing PFAS isn’t simple. Cookware switched to sol-gel ceramics. Cosmetics use maltodextrin polymers. Textiles deploy hyperbranched dendrimers. Food packaging experiments with bamboo coatings.
Translation: Everything costs more to make. Raw materials are scarce. Testing is mandatory. Certifications are expensive. When Caraway charges $204 for two pans, they’re not gouging – they’re covering the cost of compliance.
Winners & Losers
Winners: Early movers like GreenPan, brands with “clean” positioning, testing labs, ceramic suppliers
Losers: Legacy brands with PFAS-dependent products, budget cookware, anyone with inventory in Maine
The real story? This is just beginning. More states join in 2027. Federal rules loom. Smart brands are going PFAS-free nationally now rather than managing state-by-state chaos. Expensive today, table stakes tomorrow.
🔮 2026 PREDICTIONS
What’s coming this year
Based on reader submissions and industry intel:
Ozempic Changes Everything: GLP-1 drugs reshape snacking. Portion sizes shrink. Protein obsession intensifies.
AI Kills Mass Marketing: Kellanova’s already doing individualized journeys. Every brand follows or dies.
Climate Labels Arrive: Carbon footprint on packaging becomes standard in blue states.
DTC’s Final Death: Daily Harvest’s relaunch is desperation. Retail or perish in 2026.
The Great Consolidation: Conagra’s $968M writedown signals more M&A pain ahead.
🔥 THE HOT TAKE
My unfiltered 2026 opener
Welcome to the Post-Chemistry Era of CPG.
PFAS bans aren’t about environmentalism – they’re about reshaping power. When Maine can force Fortune 500 companies to reformulate overnight, states become product developers. When ceramic pans cost $200, “clean” becomes luxury. When 74% trust store brands, nationals lose pricing power.
Stephen Ellsworth joining DropOut after selling Poppi for $2 billion shows where smart money goes: boring categories with broken incumbents. Frozen breakfast sandwiches. Olive oil. Family vitamins. Not sexy, but massive.
The brands winning 2026 won’t be the ones with the best Instagram aesthetic or celebrity founder. They’ll be the ones who mastered chemistry homework, built factory relationships, and understood that private label is now the competition.
Your $200 frying pan is the future. Get used to it.
🎙️ COMING TUESDAY
Unpackaged Goods Episode 14: 2026 Preview
Breaking down PFAS compliance costs, why Australians are buying American agriculture, and whether protein breakfast sandwiches can dethrone Jimmy Dean. Plus: My 10 bold predictions for CPG in 2026.
🥫 ONE MORE THING...
Before you close this tab
2026 starts with regulations, reformulations, and reality checks. The easy money era ended. The chemistry quiz began. Brands that survive will be the ones who understand: compliance is the new innovation, private label is the new premium, and boring categories with real problems are the new gold rush.
Ready or not, 2026 is here. Time to build something real.
Until next Sunday, Jonathan Deeter Your CPG-Obsessed Friend
P.S.
Circana projects 2-4% growth with flat volume in 2026. Translation: prices up, units flat, margins compressed. The squeeze is real. Position accordingly.
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